Released member · Moderate research confidence
ASML
SDS 17/20 · [4 · 4 · 3 · 3 · 3]
Dimension floors met. See the full admission gate and evidence packet.
Capital · Released constituent research index
Durable scarcity selection. Valuation stays separate.
The sPEG Index identifies listed companies with evidence-supported capacity to retain economic benefits from constrained alternatives over a three-to-five-year horizon. Every decision exposes its mechanism, five-part ordinal score, evidence confidence, counterevidence, and next falsifier.
Business quality is not price. Membership does not mean “cheap,” and a missing PEG does not erase durable scarcity. SDS never changes PEG or an economic multiplier. Release v1 names five members; all valuation fields remain unavailable until a separately qualified valuation packet exists.
Candidates
10
Members
5
Watchlist
5
Release
2026-09-17
Membership state · member
Meets every admission gate
Released member · Moderate research confidence
Cadence
SDS 15/20 · [3 · 3 · 3 · 3 · 3]
Dimension floors met. See the full admission gate and evidence packet.
Released member · Moderate research confidence
NVIDIA
SDS 15/20 · [3 · 3 · 3 · 3 · 3]
Dimension floors met. See the full admission gate and evidence packet.
Released member · Moderate research confidence
Synopsys
SDS 14/20 · [3 · 3 · 3 · 3 · 2]
Dimension floors met. See the full admission gate and evidence packet.
Released member · Moderate research confidence
TSMC
SDS 14/20 · [3 · 3 · 3 · 3 · 2]
Dimension floors met. See the full admission gate and evidence packet.
Research decision · watchlist
A named gate remains unmet
Watchlist · non-member · Low research confidence
Analog Devices
SDS 14/20 · [2 · 3 · 3 · 3 · 3]
Below floor: Constraint: 2/3
Watchlist · non-member · Low research confidence
Arista
SDS 13/20 · [2 · 3 · 3 · 2 · 3]
Below floor: Constraint: 2/3; Persistence: 2/3
Watchlist · non-member · Moderate research confidence
SK hynix
SDS 13/20 · [3 · 3 · 3 · 2 · 2]
Below floor: Persistence: 2/3
Watchlist · non-member · Moderate research confidence
Micron
SDS 12/20 · [3 · 2 · 3 · 2 · 2]
Below floor: Substitution resistance: 2/3; Persistence: 2/3
Watchlist · non-member · Low research confidence
Vertiv
SDS 11/20 · [2 · 2 · 3 · 2 · 2]
Below floor: Constraint: 2/3; Substitution resistance: 2/3; Persistence: 2/3
Explainable eligibility · immutable 2026-09-17 release
Inspect the admission rule, evidence and falsifiers
Every outcome comes from the published sPEG Index evidence object. The interface does not recalculate SDS, change membership or estimate investment returns.
ASML — Member
SDS 17/20 · 4 / 4 / 3 / 3 / 3 · manufacturing_qualification · Method speg-index-scarcity-v1.0.0
- Dimension floors
- Pass: C/S/E/P meet 3 and D meets 2.
- Company materiality
- Pass: Company-level materiality route is documented.
- Decisive confidence
- Pass: Every decisive dimension is at least Moderate confidence.
- Evidence packet
- Pass: Minimum admission packet is present for the draft judgment.
- Review current at cutoff
- Pass: Structural review is current at the research cutoff.
- Material event clear at cutoff
- Pass: No unresolved material eligibility event is recorded at the research cutoff.
- Sensitivity
- A one-step downgrade fails a floor for: Economic capture, Persistence
- Next falsifier
- A commercially credible equivalent for relevant production layers · Customer process changes that materially bypass the capability · Sustained failure to retain economics after required development and support
- Next observation
- Quantify customer willingness to pay and update adoption evidence after results or material customer news.
- Review cutoff
- 2026-09-17
Evidence sources: A2 (ASML) · A3 (Intel and ASML) · A5 (Reuters) · A1 (ASML) · A4 (ASML)
Historical research snapshot; score is ordinal and not a valuation or current trading signal.
What the number means
SDS is the integer sum of Constraint, Substitution resistance, Economic capture, Persistence, and Cost of defense only when all five are known. It is ordinal: 16 is not twice 8, and 15 is not 75% confidence. Admission requires C/S/E/P of at least 3, D of at least 2, adequate company materiality, at least Moderate decisive confidence, a complete evidence packet, a current review, and no unresolved material eligibility event.