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sPEG Index · member

ASML

SDS 17/20 · [4 · 4 · 3 · 3 · 3] · ordinal

Integrated advanced lithography, installed support, and process ecosystem; non-EUV products are not assumed equally scarce.

Reviewed 2026-09-17 · Next review 2026-12-16 · released speg-index-2026-09-17-v1

Five judgments

Constraint · Moderate

4/4

Relevant EUV capability has no demonstrated equivalent and requires multi-stage technical and supplier replication.

Counterevidence: Customer cost reservations and continued use of existing EUV constrain claims about universal or immediate High-NA adoption.

Substitution resistance · Moderate

4/4

Replacement at the relevant layers requires substantial process redesign and qualification.

Counterevidence: Customer cost reservations and continued use of existing EUV constrain claims about universal or immediate High-NA adoption.

Economic capture · Moderate

3/4

Current operating earnings remain after substantial R&D, but the packet does not isolate a measured scarcity rent.

Counterevidence: Customer cost reservations and continued use of existing EUV constrain claims about universal or immediate High-NA adoption.

Persistence · Moderate

3/4

A three-to-five-year path is credible; current evidence does not justify assuming universal High-NA adoption or permanence.

Counterevidence: Customer cost reservations and continued use of existing EUV constrain claims about universal or immediate High-NA adoption.

Cost of defense · Moderate

3/4

Material benefit remains after engineering and support spending, with future capacity and support costs still uncertain.

Counterevidence: Customer cost reservations and continued use of existing EUV constrain claims about universal or immediate High-NA adoption.

Admission gates

  • dimension floors: pass — C/S/E/P meet 3 and D meets 2.
  • materiality: pass — Company-level materiality route is documented.
  • decisive confidence: pass — Every decisive dimension is at least Moderate confidence.
  • source packet: pass — Minimum admission packet is present for the draft judgment.
  • current review: pass — Structural review is current at the research cutoff.
  • material event: pass — No unresolved material eligibility event is recorded at the research cutoff.

Rationale, falsifiers, and next observation

17/20; include **Perimeter:** integrated advanced lithography, installed support and process ecosystem. Company-level attribution uses the integrated-capability route; no unsupported EUV revenue percentage is assigned. Non-EUV products are not assumed equally scarce. **Evidence:** Q2 sales were €9.326bn, gross margin 54%, and installed-base management €2.762bn; that last category includes services and field options. The 2025 report shows €11.3bn operating income after €4.7bn R&D. Intel's September announcement documents High-NA use on selected production layers; it is a joint commercial origin, not independent validation of all adoption economics. [A1–A4] **Judgment:** C4/S4 reflect the specific EUV capability and the process changes needed to substitute; E3 reflects retained earnings, not a measured scarcity rent; P3 limits the claim to a defensible three-to-five-year path; D3 recognizes profit after substantial engineering while retaining uncertainty over future support and capacity spending. No claim that every customer must adopt High-NA now. Reuters reported TSMC cost reservations and continued use of existing EUV in May; that is dated customer counterevidence, not a current adoption schedule. [A5] **Review/removal trigger:** a commercially credible alternative for the relevant layers; customer process changes materially bypassing the capability; or sustained failure to retain economics after required development/support. Reassess adoption delays separately from a complete thesis failure. Next full review by December 16, or next results/material adoption news earlier. Quantified customer willingness to pay remains missing.
  • A commercially credible equivalent for relevant production layers
  • Customer process changes that materially bypass the capability
  • Sustained failure to retain economics after required development and support

Next: Quantify customer willingness to pay and update adoption evidence after results or material customer news.

Valuation context

PEG: unavailable (qualified reference path not assembled). Economic sPEG: unavailable (paired valuation uncalibrated). SDS is not a valuation input.

Source packet

A1 · ASML · ASML Q2 results — Reported capture; planned capacity is not shipmentsA2 · ASML · ASML EUV systems — Technical perimeter; not willingness-to-pay evidenceA3 · Intel and ASML · Intel/ASML High-NA update — Joint commercial origin; selected layers, not universal adoptionA4 · ASML · ASML 2025 annual report highlights — Earnings after engineering; not full maintenance-capex attributionA5 · Reuters · Reuters customer-adoption report — External reporting of customer cost reservations; dated, not a September plan