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Vertiv

SDS 11/20 · [2 · 2 · 3 · 2 · 2] · ordinal

Data-center power, cooling, and service systems, with product and project economics not yet separated.

Reviewed 2026-09-17 · Next review 2026-12-16 · released speg-index-2026-09-17-v1

Five judgments

Constraint · Low

2/4

Demand is strong, but product-level alternatives and expanding competing capacity keep C below the admission floor.

Counterevidence: Schneider and Motivair are expanding competing liquid-cooling capacity, and order backlog does not prove bargaining power.

Substitution resistance · Low

2/4

Project qualification can matter, but the packet does not establish customer switching burdens at company scale.

Counterevidence: Schneider and Motivair are expanding competing liquid-cooling capacity, and order backlog does not prove bargaining power.

Economic capture · Moderate

3/4

Current operating capture is observed, with acquisition and FX components separated from organic growth claims.

Counterevidence: Schneider and Motivair are expanding competing liquid-cooling capacity, and order backlog does not prove bargaining power.

Persistence · Low

2/4

Price-cost retention through rival expansion and project cycles is unresolved.

Counterevidence: Schneider and Motivair are expanding competing liquid-cooling capacity, and order backlog does not prove bargaining power.

Cost of defense · Moderate

2/4

Capacity, working-capital, and service requirements leave residual retention plausible but sensitive.

Counterevidence: Schneider and Motivair are expanding competing liquid-cooling capacity, and order backlog does not prove bargaining power.

Admission gates

dimension floors: fail — At least one dimension is unknown or below its floor.
materiality: fail — Company-level materiality is unassessable.
decisive confidence: fail — At least one decisive dimension is below Moderate confidence.
source packet: fail — Minimum admission packet is incomplete.
current review: pass — Structural review is current at the research cutoff.
material event: fail — A material perimeter or eligibility event remains unresolved.

Rationale, falsifiers, and next observation

11/20; watchlist Q2 revenue was $3.274bn; GAAP operating profit $638m versus adjusted $738m. Growth included organic, acquisition and FX components. Management identifies project timing/supply congestion, while Schneider/Motivair's factory announcement demonstrates expanding competing supply. [V1–V2] **Judgment:** E3 acknowledges current operating capture; C2/S2/P2/D2 reflect unresolved product-level alternatives, contract price-cost retention and investment needs. Low confidence applies to durable company-wide scarcity. An order backlog or physical cooling requirement does not prove persistent bargaining power. **Admission evidence needed:** product-specific qualification constraints and retained price-cost economics as rival capacity expands, plus a material company-perimeter bridge. Next results/competitive-capacity update/by December 16. The earlier September transaction lead remains unverified in definitive primary documents; it receives no numerical credit and keeps current equity valuation blocked. No admission is justified by growth alone.

Rival capacity eliminates lead-time or pricing advantage
Order conversion weakens materially
Capacity and working-capital needs absorb retained economics

Next: Obtain product-specific qualification constraints, retained price-cost economics, and definitive transaction evidence.

Valuation context

PEG: unavailable (qualified reference path not assembled). Economic sPEG: unavailable (paired valuation uncalibrated). SDS is not a valuation input.

Source packet

V1 · Vertiv · Vertiv Q2 results — GAAP distinction and order-conversion limits V2 · Schneider Electric and Motivair · Schneider/Motivair factory — Rival capacity activity; no current lead-time parity inferred