Amazon
Scores out of 100 · Ranks within the 50-company cohort
Target date 2026-09-18
Target date 2027-09-18
Target date 2030-09-18
Our power thesis
AWS combines infrastructure, custom chips, model distribution, and operating permissions. Power procurement supports expansion. Amazon gains absolute power, but we expect OpenAI to capture enough direct interaction to move ahead by 2030.
Four Forces breakdown
Each force uses the same fixed 0–100 scale. The strongest force and breadth of control determine the Power Score.
| Force | 2026 | 2027 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compute | 95 | 100 | 100 |
| Interface | 90 | 90 | 95 |
| Alignment | 90 | 95 | 95 |
| Energy | 80 | 85 | 90 |
Our forecast
Across our 2026–2030 view, the Power Score rises from 91.9 to 97.5; the rank moves from #3 to #4.
Compute 95 → 100; Interface 90 → 95; Alignment 90 → 95; Energy 80 → 90.
The thesis above explains our call. Rank can fall even when power grows if other companies gain faster.
What would change our mind
Custom-chip commitments fail to convert into useful capacity or customers bypass AWS’s agent layer.
Research behind the judgment
Amazon’s Q2 release describes AWS growth, Trainium commitments, Bedrock, and AgentCore capabilities, including tools for agent execution.
- Q2 2026 results2026-07-30 · Accessed 2026-09-18
Sources inform the factual premises. Force scores, ranks, and forecasts are exmxc’s judgments as of this edition.