Anthropic
Scores out of 100 · Ranks within the 50-company cohort
Target date 2026-09-18
Target date 2027-09-18
Target date 2030-09-18
Our power thesis
We forecast Claude becoming a major interface for delegated work, with greater compute access and enforceable controls. Its Alignment score reflects the ability to govern deployment, not a claim that its models cannot misbehave.
Four Forces breakdown
Each force uses the same fixed 0–100 scale. The strongest force and breadth of control determine the Power Score.
| Force | 2026 | 2027 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compute | 80 | 85 | 90 |
| Interface | 80 | 90 | 95 |
| Alignment | 80 | 85 | 90 |
| Energy | 35 | 50 | 65 |
Our forecast
Across our 2026–2030 view, the Power Score rises from 74.4 to 90.0; the rank moves from #14 to #6.
Compute 80 → 90; Interface 80 → 95; Alignment 80 → 90; Energy 35 → 65.
The thesis above explains our call. Rank can fall even when power grows if other companies gain faster.
What would change our mind
Incidents or dependence on outside infrastructure prevent Claude from becoming an institutional operating layer.
Research behind the judgment
Anthropic’s August update describes containment and monitoring changes following evaluation incidents, including interventions that block actions and alert humans.
- Alignment and security practices update2026-08-31 · Accessed 2026-09-18
Sources inform the factual premises. Force scores, ranks, and forecasts are exmxc’s judgments as of this edition.