Arm
Scores out of 100 · Ranks within the 50-company cohort
Target date 2026-09-18
Target date 2027-09-18
Target date 2030-09-18
Our power thesis
Instruction-set and software ecosystem reach become more valuable as AI spreads across cloud and devices. We expect gains in Compute and developer Interface, with much less control of application permissions.
Four Forces breakdown
Each force uses the same fixed 0–100 scale. The strongest force and breadth of control determine the Power Score.
| Force | 2026 | 2027 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compute | 80 | 85 | 85 |
| Interface | 60 | 65 | 70 |
| Alignment | 25 | 30 | 35 |
| Energy | 5 | 5 | 10 |
Our forecast
Across our 2026–2030 view, the Power Score rises from 61.3 to 67.5; the rank moves from #31 to #33.
Compute 80 → 85; Interface 60 → 70; Alignment 25 → 35; Energy 5 → 10.
The thesis above explains our call. Rank can fall even when power grows if other companies gain faster.
What would change our mind
Customers capture AI growth through architectures or software layers that reduce Arm’s influence.
Research behind the judgment
Arm’s current newsroom highlights its AI CPU and Neoverse platform activity.
- Arm newsroomCurrent September 2026 material · Accessed 2026-09-18
Sources inform the factual premises. Force scores, ranks, and forecasts are exmxc’s judgments as of this edition.