ASML
Scores out of 100 · Ranks within the 50-company cohort
Target date 2026-09-18
Target date 2027-09-18
Target date 2030-09-18
Our power thesis
We assign maximum Compute power to its lithography position and expect that bottleneck to persist. Limited control of AI interfaces, permissions, and electricity keeps the composite below broad platform owners.
Four Forces breakdown
Each force uses the same fixed 0–100 scale. The strongest force and breadth of control determine the Power Score.
| Force | 2026 | 2027 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compute | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Interface | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Alignment | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Energy | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our forecast
Across our 2026–2030 view, the Power Score holds at 66.3; the rank moves from #20 to #35.
All four force scores hold through 2030.
The thesis above explains our call. Rank can fall even when power grows if other companies gain faster.
What would change our mind
Customers achieve comparable leading-edge production with materially less dependence on ASML.
Research behind the judgment
ASML’s Q2 reporting provides its current operating and order outlook for semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
- Q2 2026 results2026 Q2 reporting · Accessed 2026-09-18
Sources inform the factual premises. Force scores, ranks, and forecasts are exmxc’s judgments as of this edition.