IBM
Scores out of 100 · Ranks within the 50-company cohort
Target date 2026-09-18
Target date 2027-09-18
Target date 2030-09-18
Our power thesis
Hybrid infrastructure and institutional governance support its current position. We forecast relative erosion as cloud-native and agent-native platforms capture more work, while IBM remains relevant in demanding deployments.
Four Forces breakdown
Each force uses the same fixed 0–100 scale. The strongest force and breadth of control determine the Power Score.
| Force | 2026 | 2027 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compute | 55 | 55 | 50 |
| Interface | 60 | 60 | 55 |
| Alignment | 80 | 80 | 75 |
| Energy | 25 | 25 | 25 |
Our forecast
Across our 2026–2030 view, the Power Score falls from 67.5 to 63.1; the rank moves from #19 to #44.
Compute 55 → 50; Interface 60 → 55; Alignment 80 → 75.
The thesis above explains our call. Rank can fall even when power grows if other companies gain faster.
What would change our mind
Its hybrid governance becomes the default across heterogeneous AI environments.
Research behind the judgment
IBM’s July results discuss its hybrid software businesses and AI-related portfolio.
- Q2 2026 results2026-07-22 · Accessed 2026-09-18
Sources inform the factual premises. Force scores, ranks, and forecasts are exmxc’s judgments as of this edition.