NVIDIA
Scores out of 100 · Ranks within the 50-company cohort
Target date 2026-09-18
Target date 2027-09-18
Target date 2030-09-18
Our power thesis
The leading compute supplier also controls a powerful developer interface. We expect custom silicon and competing software to reduce its relative dominance by 2030, while model platforms gain permissions and direct users. Infrastructure partnerships are not ownership of partners’ electricity.
Four Forces breakdown
Each force uses the same fixed 0–100 scale. The strongest force and breadth of control determine the Power Score.
| Force | 2026 | 2027 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compute | 100 | 100 | 95 |
| Interface | 90 | 90 | 90 |
| Alignment | 65 | 70 | 75 |
| Energy | 30 | 35 | 45 |
Our forecast
Across our 2026–2030 view, the Power Score holds at 85.6; the rank moves from #5 to #11.
Compute 100 → 95; Alignment 65 → 75; Energy 30 → 45.
The thesis above explains our call. Rank can fall even when power grows if other companies gain faster.
What would change our mind
CUDA and NVIDIA systems become even harder to substitute as custom-chip deployments disappoint.
Research behind the judgment
NVIDIA’s August results report $89 billion in quarterly data-center revenue and describe Vera Rubin production, software, and infrastructure partnerships.
- Q2 FY2027 results2026-08-26 · Accessed 2026-09-18
Sources inform the factual premises. Force scores, ranks, and forecasts are exmxc’s judgments as of this edition.