OpenAI
Scores out of 100 · Ranks within the 50-company cohort
Target date 2026-09-18
Target date 2027-09-18
Target date 2030-09-18
Our power thesis
Direct user intent is its strategic asset. We forecast rising control of compute, powered capacity, and agent permissions, taking OpenAI to fourth in 2027 and third in 2030. This assumes execution, not automatic ownership of partners’ infrastructure.
Four Forces breakdown
Each force uses the same fixed 0–100 scale. The strongest force and breadth of control determine the Power Score.
| Force | 2026 | 2027 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compute | 85 | 95 | 100 |
| Interface | 95 | 100 | 100 |
| Alignment | 80 | 85 | 95 |
| Energy | 45 | 65 | 85 |
Our forecast
Across our 2026–2030 view, the Power Score rises from 85.6 to 97.5; the rank moves from #6 to #3.
Compute 85 → 100; Interface 95 → 100; Alignment 80 → 95; Energy 45 → 85.
The thesis above explains our call. Rank can fall even when power grows if other companies gain faster.
What would change our mind
Agent usage does not translate into durable workflow control, or infrastructure obligations outpace delivery.
Research behind the judgment
OpenAI’s September infrastructure account describes serving products used by more than one billion people weekly across 40 regions.
- Scaling storage for one billion users2026-09-11 · Accessed 2026-09-18
Sources inform the factual premises. Force scores, ranks, and forecasts are exmxc’s judgments as of this edition.